Ocean anomalies play a crucial role in the ocean-atmosphere weather and climate system. Among these events, the warm and cold El Niño (Southern Oscillation) events in the Pacific Ocean have a significant impact. Recently, we are witnessing a shift towards one A new cold phase called La Niña. Let’s dig deeper into what this will mean for the entire planet.
There is a new anomaly emerging.
The peak of warm anomalies in the ENSO regions was recorded in December. However, since the beginning of this year, ocean temperatures have been rapidly declining, with a negative circulation forecast for the summer. Recent ocean anomalies show the emergence of cool conditions in the tropical Pacific, especially in the central and eastern gyre regions, indicating early signs of La Niña. Further cooling is expected in the coming weeks and months.
Deep ocean cooling
A significant cooling process has also developed beneath the ocean surface. Cold anomalies now reach almost 100-150 meters From deep below. This strong cold anomaly beneath the surface is crucial to the development of La Niña. Thanks to trade winds and ocean currents, these anomalies move from west to east, eventually emerging as to the surface in the eastern Pacific Ocean, resulting in a La Niña phenomenon.
La Niña Trends and Forecasts 2024-2025
According to experts at the Climate Prediction Center, “A transition from El Niño to a neutral El Niño is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with an increased chance of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (60% chance).” This rapid transition between ENSO phases suggests that La Niña will fully develop during the summer, with the first weather effects expected as early as fall 2024.
NOAA’s official ENSO Probable Outlook also confirms this trend. The transition to the cold phase is unusually rapid, with the likelihood of La Niña increasing rapidly during the June-August season. Based on the latest available data, it is expected that La Niña will significantly impact the winter of 2024-2025.
La Niña and Atlantic Hurricanes
La Niña has a significant impact on pressure and rainfall patterns in the tropics, significantly affecting the hurricane season inAtlanticThe main effect is weaker winds in the main development area, which reduces wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. This favors the development and strengthening of tropical systems.
Recent forecasts indicate a cold La Niña anomaly in the Pacific, while surface temperatures are expected to be much warmer than normal in the Atlantic. An active ENSO cold phase means reduced wind shear and more atmospheric instability in the developing Atlantic, combined with warmer ocean temperatures, creating ideal conditions for an active and intense hurricane season.
ENSO cold event and winter weather
The greatest impact of La Niña generally occurs during the winter. While long-range forecasts for the winter of 2024-2025 are not yet available, historical data may provide clues. La Niña winters typically bring low pressure and cold temperatures to the atmosphere. United State The northern and northwestern regions, as well as a warmer and drier climate in the southern sectors.
pressure and temperature anomalies
The average pressure pattern during La Niña winters over the past 40 years shows a high pressure system over the North Pacific and a low pressure area over the Pacific. Canada And the northern United States. Me too’Europe The atmospheric pressure is lower than normal in the central and southern regions.
The temperature pattern for the same winters shows cold anomalies under their low pressure areas. Canada Western and Northwestern United States, with a colder zone extending across the Midwest and parts of the central United States and Europe. Warmer-than-normal winters typically occur in the southern and eastern United States.
Rain and snowfall during La Niña
La Niña winters are generally drier in the southern and southeastern United States due to a weaker subtropical jet stream. More precipitation occurs in the northwestern United States, the Great Lakes, and parts of the northeastern United States.
When it comes to snow, La Niña increases the likelihood of snowfall in the Northwestern United States, the Midwest, parts of the Northeastern United States and eastern Canada, thanks to the cold air that can reach it and the moisture that is available.
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