Rigorousness in the management of public accounts without penalizing economic growth. This, in short, is the message of the Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, who yesterday in the Council of Ministers presented a first clarification of the Structural Budget Plan (SBP) that will be sent to Brussels. It was a brief presentation because the figures have not yet been entered. In fact, we will wait until September 23 for the general review of the annual estimates of the national accounts 1995-2023 by Istat and then the text will return to Palazzo Chigi (meetings with the social partners have been scheduled for September 25 on this subject) and then be considered in Parliament in the first week of October. Then it will be sent to the Commission a little late compared to the deadline of September 20, a delay that is justified because it involves the start of the new procedure of the Stability Pact. Some countries are in the same situation as Italy, starting with France, which has not yet fully installed the Barnier government.
However, one fact is certain: the growth rate of net spending will average around 1.5% per year as envisaged in the new Community rules. This parameter is determined by the difference between the total spending of the Palestinian Authority and the discretionary revenue measures, interest spending, the cyclical component of spending on unemployment and spending on EU programs as well as temporary budget measures. The Def 2024 plan indicated that this total amounts to around €1,000 billion with a decreasing impact on GDP from the expected 47.2% for the current year to 44% in 2027, and in any case, in absolute terms, it cannot increase more than €15 billion per year. Likewise, the intention to reduce the deficit to GDP ratio to below 3% in 2026 was confirmed, which led to the introduction of the one-year target of the Italian Stabilization Program, which in any case provides for a 7-year recovery plan with a second objective: reducing the deficit/GDP to 1.5% with the debt to GDP ratio above 90%. The government stressed, via XX Settembre, that it “continues to pursue a prudent and responsible fiscal policy”, and proposes a path to recovery from excessive deficits “realistically more ambitious than that envisaged by the European Commission”. It is no coincidence that the Council of Ministers approved the legislative decree on the sale of a stake in Poste Italia.
Parts of the PSB are represented by economic policies. First of all, these introductions confirm the 25 billion manoeuvre plan which will first have to confirm the cutting of the wedge up to 35,000 euros and the integration of the second Irpef rate from 25 to 23% up to 50,000 euros. The revision of the national accounts could make room for more intervention in favour of households. Given that the government intends to bring forward the date of the disbursement of the 100 euro bonus for incomes up to 28,000 euros (provided for in the Irpef legislative decree), the upward adjustment of GDP from 2021 onwards could automatically generate a few billion more to finance the relief shelves without exceeding the established ceilings.
The Treasury Department added that the PSB program includes reforms and investments that continue the path taken with Pnrr and update it to act more decisively on issues such as the Palestinian Authority,
Justice, business, taxation. Obviously, real estate income will not be affected because the government does not intend to increase the tax burden. Vice Minister Liu explained yesterday: “No, no, nothing has been touched on the land registry.”
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