Monday, October 7, 2024

Who will win if we go to the polls immediately?

Date:

the US presidential elections I’m around the corner: Kamala Harris e Donald Trump They will compete in the polls on November 5 and both are aiming to gain a share 270or half plus 1 in 538: This is the number of voters each candidate needs to win and declare The 47th President of the United States of America.


Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump

According to a survey he conducted Npr-Pbs News-MaristHarris collects 50% From consensus against 48% to Trump. According to the average The hillHowever, the vice president has a national advantage of 3.4%. But as we get closer to the vote, there is a proliferation of polls, both nationally and for individual states.

States in the balance before the US elections

The games are now almost over, but there are still seven states in the balance that will be crucial for whoever aspires to succeed outgoing President Joe Biden.

Image Line: Getty

A still from the debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on September 10.

Countries where anything can still happen are North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan e wisconsin.

In general, Harris has gained the confidence of the so-called Rust Belt states, that is, the post-industrial states of the North including Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. In the so-called Sun Belt, that is, in the southern states extending from the Atlantic coast to the Pacific coast, Trump is ahead.

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Kamala Harris has been leading the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin since early August, albeit by a narrow margin. This is the situation in states where voting remains controversial:

state Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Pennsylvania 48,8% 47,5%
Michigan 48,7% 46,8%
wisconsin 49.4% 47,5%
North Carolina 47,9% 48.1%
Georgia 47.9% 48,6%
Arizona 47.3% 48,6%
Nevada 48,9% 47.1%

Trump was weakened by the televised confrontation

The televised confrontation that took place in September did not help Trump, who appeared aggressive and attacked his opponent with fake news (“immigrants eat dogs and cats”).

On the other hand, Harris received support points after the television confrontation that took place in Pennsylvania. The moderate shift she adopted a few weeks before the televised duel benefited the vice president.



Kamala Harris Donald Trump in the polls

Image source: ANSA

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