Italy’s economy has grown more than expected in the past three years. But the effect on handling may be minimal and almost imperceptible.
The upcoming revision of the national economic accounts by the statistics institute shows that GDP has grown more than expected year after year and reached 2,128 billion in absolute terms in 2023, a level above the maximum reached before the financial crisis in 2008. The result has been that the deficit has risen from 7.4% to 7.2% and the debt has fallen even more dramatically, from 137.3% estimated last spring to 134.6%.
The new estimates that have entered the political debate in light of the completion of the structural budget plan in the hope that many will gain from the statistics a useful treasure for the budget, do not appear to have an immediate and significant impact on this year and the following years. From a technical standpoint, Istat goes no further, talking about “the fundamental dynamics that remain fundamentally certain.”Although the level of GDP has increased beyond initial expectations. Providing a slightly more political explanation, Lucia Albano, Undersecretary of the Ministry of Economy and Finance for the share of foreign direct investment, instead considers that the improvement of the public accounts provides “greater flexibility” for maneuver. With an interpretation that does not coincide with that of Giancarlo Giorgetti. For the Minister of Economy, the adjustment is “simple” and does not change the principles and framework of the structural budget plan studied by the Council of Ministers on September 17. The PSB will therefore now simply be “improved” in the light of the new figures. The message to the parties and ministers therefore remains the one already delivered a few days ago: no treasures.
In fact, calculating the impact to 2024 is very complex. First because, on the one hand, if Istat revised upward the nominal GDP for each of the years 2021, 2022 and 2023 (positively affecting the deficit and debt that are calculated with GDP in the denominator), on the other hand, the nominal GDP growth rate was raised only in the first two years.instead of cutting from the latter. In practice, although Italian GDP grew last year by 43 billion more than the April estimate, reaching almost 2,130 billion, the economy grew by 0.7% and not 0.9% as previously calculated. Comparing with the upwardly revised 2022 actually results in a lower percentage change.
But in light of the new numbers The statistics institute said there could be “only a broad impact and not on growth rates.”. Giorgia Meloni has already expected the government to believe it can achieve 1% growth as shown by the recent Def trends. And as announced immediately after the Council of Ministers began examining the Social Solidarity Bank, the deficit should gradually fall below 3% by 2026, even if the path could become more difficult due to the desire expressed by Giorgetti to reduce the structural wedge. Finally, at the request of Europe, spending should fall by 1.5% annually, even if – as Lorenzo Codogno highlights – the downward revision of current spending made today by Istat for 2023 could make it “a little more difficult” to reduce the index as early as 2024.
Whole numbers It will soon come to the attention of parliamentarians. It is not yet certain that the plan will return to the cabinet: on Wednesday afternoon it will be clarified to the social partners and then could be sent directly to the two councils. Alternatively, the ministers could review it at the next government meeting scheduled for Friday.
Reproduction © Copyright ANSA
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