With just 30 days to go until the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympics, Nielsen’s Gracenote has published its latest Virtual Medal Table (VMT) forecast for the 2024 Games, looking at data available on the results of major world and continental competitions since the Summer 2021 Games. Gracenote has forecasted the number of gold, silver and bronze medals for the participating nations and athletes at the Games of the XXXIII Olympiad. These forecasts will be updated again before the Games begin, approximately three days before the Paris Olympics Opening Ceremony.
Almost all Russian and Belarusian competitors are absent from international competitions.
As of February 2022. It is not possible to accurately predict who will participate in Paris 2024 without results in this period. However, it appears that the participation of these athletes will be limited and we expect the hypothetical medal table to be an accurate reflection of the usual NOCs based on the data available to us.
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Gracenote’s VMT predictions predict that the United States will win the most medals ever at Paris 2024 (123). If Team USA achieves this prediction, it will secure its eighth consecutive top spot at the top of the final Summer Games medal table.
China is expected to finish second in overall medals but is expected to challenge the United States for first place in gold medals. China’s projected 87 medals would be two fewer than the total it won in Tokyo two years ago. Its projected 36 gold medals would be two fewer than the 38 it won three years ago.
Great Britain is also expected to perform similarly to the last Olympics, with Gracenote’s VMT predicting that the British medal tally will be two fewer than the 64 they won in Tokyo. However, gold medals could be significantly reduced, with the British team expected to win 14 golds in Paris.
Host nation France is expected to significantly increase its total medal tally from the 33 it won in Tokyo. The hypothetical medal table puts France third in gold medals, behind the United States and China, and the projected total of 29 golds would not be far off France’s total at the last Olympics.
Australia is projected to finish fifth in the overall medal table. The 48 medals projected by the Gracenote virtual medal table would be the country’s most in 20 years, since it won 50 at Athens 2004.
Russian and Belarusian athletes
Since competitors from Russia and Belarus have been banned from international competition in almost all Olympic sports since February 2022, it is not possible to accurately assess the potential performance of participants as neutral individual athletes at Paris 2024, unless they compete in a more or less normal way. For example, tennis players from the two countries. However, it appears that the number of competitors from these countries will be very limited in Paris, so Gracenote’s hypothetical medal table accurately represents the current situation based on the data we have.
Top 5 medal winning countries
(Paris 2024 predictions: 123Medals, Tokyo 2020: 113)
The United States is projected to once again top the hypothetical medal table at the Paris Summer Games. Gracenote’s current projection of 123 medals is 10 more than Team USA’s total in 2021. If that total is reached, it would be the best performance for the U.S. since the boycotted 1984 Los Angeles Olympics. In the hypothetical medal table, Team USA is projected to win medals in 26 different sports, three short of the Olympic record of 29 set in Tokyo. Track and field and swimming remain key to success, with just under half of the U.S. medals expected to come from those two sports.
(Paris 2024: 87, Tokyo 2020: 89)
At the Tokyo Olympics, China took home 70 medals from the Rio Games, its lowest since 2004. Grisinot’s current projections, based on the results of Chinese athletes, suggest that China will perform similarly to three years ago. Diving, shooting, swimming, weightlifting, table tennis, artistic gymnastics and badminton are China’s top medal-winning sports, but 21 sports have a Chinese competitor in the top three, according to VMT. China’s projected total of 36 gold medals means it will threaten the United States’ position as the most-medaled gold medalist in Paris.
(Paris 2024: 62, Tokyo 2020: 64)
Gracenote’s hypothetical medal table for the 2024 Paris Olympics suggests that Britain could maintain its winning performance of 60 or more medals for a fourth consecutive Summer Olympics. Britain’s success at the last three Olympics has been built on winning medals in at least 20 sports, and VMT’s current projections of medals in 21 sports suggest that this trend will continue. Prior to the 2012 Olympics, Britain won medals in at least 20 sports in London alone in 1908, a very different Olympic era.
(Paris 2024: 56, Tokyo 2020: 33)
According to current projections, the host nation, France, will significantly increase its medal tally and nearly triple its gold medal tally compared to the Tokyo Games. France has had Summer Olympic success in 15 to 19 different sports at each Olympics this century, but is now expected to win medals in 24 different sports, a new French record. At the 2024 Paris Games, France is expected to have its best Olympics since 1900.
(Paris 2024: 48 medals, Tokyo 2020: 46)
After disappointing Olympics in 2012 and 2016, Australia will be looking to improve on its performance in 2021, surpassing 40 medals for the sixth time in the last eight Olympics. If Australia wins 48 medals, as is currently expected, it will be the country’s best Olympic performance since Athens 2004. Achieving that result will depend on the success of the swimming team.
Virtual Medals Table 1-10
Countries ranked 6th to 10th in the virtual medal table
(Paris 2024: 46, Tokyo 2020: 58)
After smashing records at the Tokyo Olympics, Japan is unlikely to achieve the same result in Paris. According to Gracenote’s latest hypothetical medal table, the Japanese team will win 12 fewer medals than it did three years ago. The number of gold medals Japan could win is expected to be more than halved, from 27 to 12. Medals are expected in 16 different sports, far short of Japan’s record haul of 21 medals at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics.
(Paris 2024 forecast: 46, Tokyo 2020: 40)
In Tokyo, Italy had its best-ever Olympics, but Gracenote’s hypothetical medal table predicts an even better performance in Paris 2024. Buoyed by a potential best-ever showing in the pool, Italy is projected to win 46 medals across 20 different sports. That’s six more podium places than in Tokyo.
(Paris 2024: 37, Tokyo 2020: 37)
Germany’s medal tally has fallen at six of the seven Summer Olympic Games since reunification, with the only exception being London 2012. Paris 2024 could reverse this trend: Griesenot’s hypothetical medal tally stands at 37, the same as Tokyo. The German team is expected to win medals in 20 sports, the third-fewest since reunification, after London 2012 and Tokyo 2020. Germany no longer dominates any one sport and VMT predicts no more than three medals for the German team in each sport.
(Paris 2024: 34, Tokyo 2020: 36)
Two years after their best ever Summer Olympics in Tokyo, the Dutch team is expected to do just as well in Paris next year and perhaps set more records. According to our latest forecast, the Dutch will break the country’s record of 12 gold medals, set at the 2000 Sydney Olympics. In four of the last six Olympic Games, the Netherlands has won medals in 11-13 sports, and the 2024 Summer Games promise to be similar. However, this year’s success will depend mainly on three sports: rowing, track cycling and athletics.
(Paris 2024: 29, Tokyo 2020: 20)
The Tokyo 2020 Olympics were a disappointment for the Republic of Korea. The country’s 20 medals, including six golds, were its lowest total since winning 19 and six medals, respectively, at the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics. The prospects for the 2024 Paris Olympics look brighter: Korean competitors are expected to win 29 medals, including eight golds. That would be Korea’s best Olympic performance since 2012.
Virtual Medal Table 11-20
Default Medal Table 21-30
About Gracenote Virtual Medals Table
The Gracenote Virtual Medal Table is a statistical model that draws on individual and team results from past Olympic Games, World Championships, and World Cups to predict potential gold, silver, and bronze medal winners by country. This information is presented in easy-to-understand forecasts and continuous data feeds that enable broadcasters, media publishers, and pay-TV operators to deliver unique Olympic-focused stories across web, mobile, and broadcast properties.
About Gracenote
Gracenote is Nielsen’s content solutions business, providing entertainment metadata, content identifiers and related offers to the world’s leading creators, distributors and platforms. Gracenote technology enables rich content navigation and discovery, ensuring consumers can easily connect to the music, TV shows, movies and sports they love, while providing powerful content analytics that simplify complex business decisions.
About Nielsen
Nielsen shapes global media and content as the global leader in audience measurement, data and analytics. Through our understanding of people and their behaviors across channels and platforms, we empower our clients with independent, actionable insights so they can better connect and engage with their audiences, now and in the future. Nielsen operates worldwide in more than 55 countries. To learn more, visit www.nielsen.com and connect with us on social media (Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook and Instagram).
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