Weather, first forecast for winter 2024-25: What to expect

As we enter mid-autumn, as usual, the first forecasts of the winter season begin to arrive. Moreover, La Niña has dominated this year A specific weather phenomenon that affects ocean temperatures, cools its surface, and characterizes the climate particularly in North America. However, there is also some impact on Europe and the Gulf Stream (the conveyor belt of warmer poleward currents).

Expectations and factor Niña

But what will winter be like? Let’s start from an assumption: these are forecasts, not forecasts, so they should be taken with caution. Ilmeteo.it uses Europe’s leading mathematical model Ecmwf European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting in Bologna.

La Niña and its consequences
In the coming months, a certain weather phenomenon called “La Niña” will take hold, write experts at ilmeteo.it. This term refers to the cooling of surface water temperature in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean which frequently affects the climate of our planet.With different repercussions also in Europe and Italy even though we are talking about an event that takes place practically on the other side of the world. This anomaly, which may seem insignificant, instead involves an important modification of the planetary atmospheric circulation.
Just to give some examples:
Some regions, such as Australia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, are witnessing an increase in rainfall, as is the case in the far south of Africa or the northern regions of Brazil.
– Intensification of monsoon winds in Southeast Asia and India
– On the contrary, the areas between southern Brazil and Argentina and the part of the United States (drought and fires in California) overlooking the Gulf of Mexico are witnessing a lack of rainfall.

La Niña: Cooling of surface waters in the Pacific Ocean

Winter 2024-25

The consequences of this The climate disruptions on our continent are not yet fully clear, and many uncertainties still remain. However, it is reasonable to expect Increased turbulence downstream from the North Atlantic with increased precipitation, Especially in the first part of the season. So on our mountains The snow doesn’t have to disappear to the delight of winter sports enthusiasts.
Latest seasonal forecast for Central Europe (ECMWF) also favors an early winter characterized by temperatures above the reference climate averages between +1 and +2°C, especially in the northern European sector, between Scandinavia and Russia (the cradle of the cold), i.e. lower than average. Instead on the Mediterranean basin, that is, here.
Therefore, at least initially, The risk of severe frosts appears to have been averted: also important news in light of alarming increases in energy bills.

Winter temperatures: up to +2°C in northern Europe, and more on average in the Mediterranean

We will see whether these hypotheses will be confirmed in the upcoming updates, and above all, whether the snow phenomenon will be able to reach flat areas more easily than it happened in previous winter seasons.